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A Broader Conservatism

Isn’t this what is called ‘triangulation’?

When Cameron has spoken about changing the Party, I’ve always thought this is what he meant. Not changing our policies necessarily, but starting to talk about things like social entrepreneurialism that are not classically Conservative or Labour issues.

The EPP Break

Dr Lee Rotherham calls the alliance between the Conservatives and the EPP “The Corpse Bride” in a new paper from the Bruges Group out today. He writes about the serious work that was put into the creation of a new alliance with the Atlanticist Baltic parties that was quietly dumped after IDS’s removal.

Truly on this issue Cameron is correct.

Received Wisdom

In the MSM the received wisdom is:

David Cameron is the only man who can reach out to swing voters. David Davis is a right-winger, core vote kind of guy. Cameron can inspire, Davis cannot.

Events are interpreted in light of this story, which is very frustrating for those of us who are trying to make a serious decision here. We are, rightly, annoyed with this sort of thing.

But the blogosphere has it’s own story:

Cameron has no policies, he never actually says anything. Davis has substance, he has actual policies, but he’ll never win because the media won’t let him. People are only voting for Cameron because they think other voters will like him.

Well, let’s turn the substance-o-meter towards the campaign leaflets (Cameron, Davis) that were sent out with the ballots. Remember that vaguely worded concepts such as

  1. “In place of Gordon Brown’s spending agenda, we need a dynamic growth agenda, ensuring that we generate the wealth to raise living standards and fund public services in the future.” (Davis) or,
  2. “Promote greater national cohesion - for example through a national school leaver programme.” (Cameron)

don’t count because (1) doesn’t contain any specific policies, and (2) is just an idea, with no detail as to how it will be accomplished. No matter how correct (1) is or interesting an idea (2) is, they do not count.

Of course, under such a ruthless substance-hunt, most of both the candidate leaflets boils out. This is to be expected. What remains:

Cameron. Specific policies:

  1. Keeping Special Schools open
  2. The right for any provider to supply health care
  3. Ending gold-plating of EU regulations
  4. Locally elected police commissioners
  5. Abolishing regional government

Davis. Specific policies:

  1. ?

5 specific policies versus 0. So I guess that’s a win for Cameron then?

Useless quiz

Thank you James for pointing me towards the Who Should You Vote For? Tory leadership quiz. The spectacularly useful results follow:

Results of quiz

For explanations of the quiz, the candidates’ views and their biographies, please read the Tory leadership FAQ.

Your expected outcome:

Cameron

Your actual outcome:

Davis 0     
Cameron 0     

You should support: David Davis

You should support: David Cameron

Take the test at Who Should You Vote For

Brilliant.

Candidate Comparison

Cornerstone have released a comparison chart of the two candidates. It shows the two candidates published comments on each subject against Cornerstone’s own view. There’s no analysis but it might be useful as a reference.

Attended a speech by David Cameron last night. Reports are here and here. Sky News were also on the scene. At one point their cameraman was trying to get interesting angles all around the church, and filmed Mr. Cameron between some empty wine glasses. I myself managed to get pictures of Cameron and Jesus in the same shot, so I guess I can’t complain about media types trying to get embarrassing images.

He proposed a state insurance scheme for residential care. I haven’t heard of this policy before and can’t find it anywhere on the net. It certainly didn’t feature in his speech on economic policy.

Cameron had discussed how unfair it is for people who save through their lives to receive no help, while those who have taken no precautions have their care paid for by the state. The idea is that people would purchase a scheme which would have an excess, so they would have to pay for the first year or two years of their care, and then the rest would be funded by the state. This would restore incentives to save, while still ensuring we are protected from the unpredictable nature of our needs in old age. At least, that’s the idea.

Speaking about David Davis:

I don’t want to row with my opponent, particularly not in a church. … I’m not going to play a game of supermarket sweep, loading as many policies as possible into my trolley.

Tee-hee.

We (Imperial College Conservative Society) managed to get a group photo with Dave, but it came out fuzzy. :-(.

Next week it’s David Davis same time same place.

Great minds think alike

Although it’s not reproduced in the online version, Hugo Rifkind in The Times today has come to the exact same conclusion I did!

Women’s issues

It’s great to see women’s issues getting an airing in the campaign. But I hope the candidates have learned their lesson. Never engage in a casual and open way with a Woman’s Hour presenter, it should be a stony patrician silence all the way.

Once again we see Davis is the man with the substance on the serious issues. Notice Cameron’s refusal to answer a straight question.

We’ll have to see the results of the Yougov poll I just took part in to know for sure, but Davis impressed and Cameron did look a little mono-topic.

If I was 70-30 for Cameron yesterday I’m just 60-40 for him today.

Prediction: Davis Up, Cameron Steady

My prediction for tonight is that Davis will impress a lot of people, regaining much support he lost. But Cameron will solidify his support, and go on to win the ballot.

David Davis performs very well in interviews. Yesterday on Channel 4 he discussed the recent anti-terror bill, and sounded particularly in command of the facts. He can manage a statesmanlike manner when he tries, sort of like a fireside chat. This will come over tonight.

We could be in for an interesting night on Cameron’s side. His standard fare can be inspiring, but will the viewers stand a whole hour of what is - let’s face it - essentially one message. It could turn out to be uncomfortably close to this. I expect that it will get a little bit sticky for Cameron tonight on those grounds, but that overall he will only reinforce in many voters’ minds why they liked him in the first place.

I’m not going to root for either side tonight. Let’s just hope that they both respect the 11th Commandment, and put the best face forward for the Party. This is an incredible opportunity to talk to voters, and they’d better not fluff it.